America's Evil Genius #4: The Battle for the Soul of the GOP

AEG#4 has hit the airwaves. This week: The internal battle within the GOP between the old-line "big government" Republicans (you might know them better as "Moderates", "Compassionate Conservatives", "Establishment Republicans", or "John McCain") and the new-line Modern Conservatives (typified by the Tea Party movement, though that movement does not entirely encompass this new generation of Conservatives). In the run-up to 2012, the battle of "Obama vs. Everybody Else" might possibly take a backseat to the "Conservatives vs. RINO" battle going on within the GOP!

Sarah Palin's Perfect Job: RNC Chairperson!

One of the curses of being a genius and a highly developed analyst of politics and culture, as I am, is that upon occasion I will say something incredibly brilliant that only a few people will ever hear or see. This is the case with what I am about to post--recently on a message board at www.wrestlingclassics.com I posted something that I feel is an incredible idea that could be hugely beneficial for the Conservative movement and the 2012 Presidential election. The problem is that only that particular message board got to see this ingenius idea, and let's face it, I'm pretty sure the movers and shakers of the GOP are not hanging out on a message board that discusses classic pro wrestling. With that in mind, I'm going to bring this brilliant idea over to this blog for the world to see.

Incidentally, if you are a fan of old-school, classic professional wrestling, there is simply no better place on the internet to discuss and learn about this topic than www.wrestlingclassics.com . You can find an answer to practically any question you have about classic wrestling, and even interact with some performers from the "glory years" of the sport of kings.

Ok, back to the topic at hand--many of us are Sarah Palin supporters, but realize that she could have a difficult time if she ran for President in 2012. It's not that Obama is popular (far from it), but there are many people out there who--for whatever reason--absolutely despise Sarah Palin. It's not just that they dislike Sarah--it's that they absolutely hate her. Irrational hatred to the point that some of them will shoot their TV with a gun when her daughter so much as appears on the screen! Now, an analysis of this hatred would make for quite a post of it's own, but for this discussion, let's just acknowledge that there is a significant percentage of the American public who hates Sarah Palin and would take action (for example, showing up at a voting booth) to prevent her from being succesful.

Now look on the other side of the coin, Barack Obama won the Presidency on the heels of unprecedented turnout from "non-traditional" and "casual" voters. By any measure, the "rock star" status has worn thin since his election, and all of those rainbows and lollipops that he promised to those non-traditional voters who just didn't know any better haven't come through. Therefore, it's logical to conclude that Obama won't be able to win on the same "smoke an mirrors, style over substance, massive non-traditional turnout" that he had in 2008. It's not that those voters would vote for the GOP candidate--I suspect that very few of them would "flip"--but that a certain dissatisfaction and malaise is likely to set in among voters who thought Obama would be the man that would change the world. So if those voters don't get fired up and turn out in droves, how does Obama win in 2012?

He doesn't.

So if it's clear that Obama can't win without a surge of casual and non-traditional voters (as he did in 2008), then one can begin to see the possible issues with a Palin candidacy. Don't get me wrong, I think Sarah Palin is a magnficent public servant and ambassador of Conservatism, and I deeply admire her. But speaking strictly in terms of electoral strategy, the level of hatred that many of those casual and non-traditional voters have for her could drive voter turnout for Obama where it otherwise wouldn't have been. I'm not saying Sarah can't beat Obama--I think she could, but it would be one hell of a fight.

I am however saying that there could be another solution that could all but gurantee a Conservative Presidential win in 2012. From my post on www.wrestlingclassics.com , here is my proposal for that solution:

"I think I've mentioned it here before, but you know what would be the *perfect* job for Sarah?

RNC Chairperson.

Before all of you spit your adult beverages all over your computer screen, think this through: What are the most important functions of a party chairperson? Raising funds and appealing to the base. There is, of course, some responsibilities in terms of agenda and strategy for the party--but it appears to me that the biggest (or at least the most highly visible) part of the job is 1) Convicing the base that the candidate isn't "leaving them behind" and 2) Convincing that base to open their checkbooks and financially back that candidate.

Nobody appeals to the base of the GOP like Sarah does, and she's among the best fundraisers we have (maybe Karl Rove is slightly ahead of her at this point, but I'd say she's right up there with him). A party chairman is there to rally the base of the party while the candidate is out there trying to rally everyone else--and it's role that Sarah's made for!

You know who else has done a pretty good job in a similar role? Howard Dean. And as scary as it might be to say this, there are some similarities between Dean and Palin:

**Dean appeals to the "true believers" of the Left as much as Sarah does to the true believers of the Right (perhaps only Al Gore gets more love from the committed Left than Dean does)

**Both scare the pants of the opposite party and much of the centrists (making it more difficult for either to win on a national level)

**Both can "fire up" the base and get people to open the checkbooks.

**The media will give both of them all the airtime they want, because they know that either one of them will be good for a juicy soundbite virtually on command.

And the best part--all of the "Palin Haters" who would come out strictly to vote against her would likely stay home. After all, *she* wouldn't be running for anything, and would have no real power (at least in a governing sense), so attacks on her--a mere party chairperson--during a Presidential campaign would fall flat. Seems to me that you'd get the best that Sarah has to offer (ability to fire up and appeal to the base, ability to raise money, and perhaps some efforts at nudging the party platform more to the Right) with none of the negatives (all of the nitwits and crazies who think Sarah is "evil incarnate" would likely stay home--and as I've said a million times, low or moderate voter turnout would work against Obama regardless of who the opponent is).

I do think Palin would make a magnificent President, and would support her wholeheartedly if it came down to her or if she were the only truly Conservative candidate. However, if we can find another True Conservative to run (and that might be a rather large "if") then Sarah as RNC Chairperson might be the brilliant move that puts it over the top."

Now, the key to all of this is for a CONSERVATIVE candidate to win the GOP nomination in 2012 while Sarah handles the fundraising and firing up of the base. As I've said before, in 2012, I will back the most Conservative candidate, I will not back a moderate simply because they have an (R) after their name. But with that having been said, a Conservative candidate--even one with relatively little experience--could beat Obama in 2012 if our poltical machine is humming along at it's highest efficiency. And I think Sarah Palin could be the perfect person for the job.

Unfortunately, the GOP establishment hasn't figured this out (no big surprise there), and they continue the charade of Micheal Steele desperately trying to hang onto his job while several others--who don't have the recognition or potential for grabbing donations as Palin does--challenge him for it. It has become a common theme of the GOP over the last 20 years: Yet another brilliant idea going to waste.

The Sarah Palin Conundrum--can we learn from Christine O'Donnell?

I have often thought that the 2012 Presidential Campaign began precisely at 10:57 PM on November 4, 2008, which was the precise moment that the 2008 election was called for Barack Obama. From that moment onward, all poltical activity in this nation--every speech, every debate, every bill, every congressional primary, every governors race, every soundbite, every news report on every network, every book that has been written, every newspaper article, and every poltical blog post (including mine), and every debate over a kitchen table or a neighborhood bar--has been a pawn in the chess game of November 2012. So with that in mind, it is understandable that we would look at the Christine O'Donnell situation in Delaware (one of the most interesting poltical stories I've seen) and see if we could draw some inferences towards 2012.

The biggest story of the O'Donnell-Mike Castle primary ended up being the debate over "pragmaticism vs. ideology" that everybody up to and including Charles Krauthammer and Karl Rove ended up getting involved in. The Republican primary in Delaware was the classic case of principled Conservative outsider who has little chance of winning the general election (at least as far as conventional wisdom would be concerned) vs. the Moderate insider who--for all of his faults (including voting for impeachment proceedings of George W. Bush)--has a better chance (again, in terms of conventional wisdom) against a Democratic candidate who is, of all things, a self-described Marxist. O'Donnell (the outsider, and darling of true Conservatives and Tea Party members) is the more Conservative candidate, but Mike Castle has the "better chance" of winning the general election (or so we were told). Therefore, there were voices--pretty loud voices--within the GOP making the argument that we must vote for Castle in order to insure a Republican Congressional majority.

At that point, the philosophical question of "victory vs. ideology" was raised. Should Conservatives sacrifice some of their Conservatism only to win elections? My view was that the answer to the question is a clear "No!" To many in the Conservative movement--myself included--the Big Tent/Go along to Get Along/Appeal to Everybody/Typical Polticians who have plagued the GOP for the last 20 years are a significant part of the problems that America faces, nearly as much so as the Democratic Party. In short, the appeal to the middle is how we got candidates like John McCain and George W. Bush among many others--guys who could get elected, but couldn't (or wouldn't) advance true Conservative values in government and society. To many of us on the Right, we're sick of hollow victories by moderates who tell us what we want to hear at campaign time, only to reach across the aisle once they are in office and stab us (and the American People) in the back.

In other words, we are no longer interested in a "Republican" majority if the only way we can get it is to put "Spineless Moderates" in office who will spend their entire term undercutting the majority of what we stand for. In a race between one of those "Rinos" and a Liberal Democrat, it's pretty much "six of one, half a dozen of the other".

So the voices of the growing Conservative movement was clear in Delaware--we're willing to back the more Conservative candidate, even if we potentially have to sacrifice a short-term goal of winning an election. We're in it for the long haul, focusing on the long-term goal of getting our nation back onto the right track financially, philisophically, and morally, rather than the short-term goals of winning an election.

In the wake of the Delaware primary and the ensuing questions of "vicrtory vs. ideology", I realized that I needed to re-think some positions I had taken on a potential Presidential run by Sarah Palin in 2012. Previously, in converstions I've had with various people as well as on some message boards, I had stated that while I feel that Sarah Palin would do the best job as President of any potential candidates that are currently out there, I have doubts that she could win the election. Therefore, I had stated that the GOP really needs to look in another direction for their 2012 candidate. I arrived at this conclusion through a combination of sheer mathematics, an understanding of human psychology, and good old-fashioned common sense. We all are aware that Obama won in 2008 based mainly off of the huge turnout that he gained within some key groups--and I feel he will have a difficult time replicating this same level of turnout in the same key areas. Obama won in 2008 because of turnout among urban voters, youth voters, and suburban middle-class white voters. Of those three groups, I believe Obama will have some difficulty with two of them in 2012, barring anything unforseen and drastic. Obama will certainly win the urban vote as strongly--and with nearly as much turnout--as he had in 2008..so I think we can concede that group of voters to him. However, I don't think he will be able to inspire the near cult-like following from the youth voters as he did in 2008. He'll win them in terms of percentage, but I don't think he'll get the high level of turnout that he had before--mainly because some youth voters will see through the sham that his 2008 campaign was, others will (through some life experience) will determine that Liberalism isn't all it's cracked up to be and switch their poltical allegiances, and still others will be so dissapointed that the "rainbows and unicorns" promised by the Obama 2008 campaign never came about, and they'll simply stay home. Likewise with the suburban whites--many within this group turned out in 2008 because of a combination of restlessness with "business as usual" government, and the appeal of a "historic" election. However, in 2012, Obama can't play the "historic election of the First Black President" card again--and all of those votes he got that were for that reason alone will have to be re-earned. Many of those within this group who voted for Obama out of some sense of vague "Change" are now having buyers remorse, and don't like the "Change" that they've sen (in particular, Obamacare). Therefore, I can't imagine Obama getting large turnout in his favor from this group as he had in 2008.

So as you can see, Obama cannot win an election with low or moderate voter turnout. With that in mind--and understanding that it would be a herculean task for Obama to replicate the huge voter turnout that he inspired in 2008, even in the best of circumstances--2012 should be an election that is there for GOP taking. The key is to keep the huge voter turnout on the Democratic side from taking root, which shouldn't be terribly hard given the current infighting, apathy, and dissapointment that we see in the American Left.

And this is what brings us to the Sarah Palin Conundrum--my one misgiving about Sarah Palin is that the American Left (and a good deal of the Independants) hate her so much that I fear they will come out to vote against her, when they might not come out to vote otherwise. Despite the fact that Sarah would make a better President than any other current GOP candidate out there, I have always feared that she would have the most difficult time winning, as she might inspire higher turnout from those who would vote for "anybody but Sarah". As a result, I've said throughout the last several months that we on the Right should concentrate on potential candidates other than Sarah.

However, in the light of the Christine O'Donnell race, I'm starting to re-think this position. Should I not back Palin simply because of fears of "electablity", despite believing that she is the best possible candidate? If so, am I falling into the same trap that GOP leadership was trying to lead Conservative into in Delaware? Don't get me wrong, I want Barack Obama out of the White House in 2012 (Hell, I'd prefer to have him run out of the country period--but I'll take "out of the White House"). However, in my haste to end the tyrannical reign of "King Barack I", I may have overlooked the possibility of a Moderate Republican gaining the office in 2012. Would this be much better than an Obama second term? I'm not sure that it would be.

The constant gaffes of Obama and the Left over the last two years have provided Conservatives with a great opportunity to not only re-take power, but more importantly the opportunity to re-educate and re-acquaint the American people with the Conservative poltical philosophy, so that it might take root, grow, and prosper for decades long beyond the 2012 election. Now, if a truly Conservative candidate emerges who is more "electable" than Sarah Palin, then I believe we should go that direction with the GOP nomination. However, if no such candidate emerges, then I no longer feel we should "accept" a moderate candidate just to insure a 2012 win. It was the moderate Republicans who had nearly as much to do with the mess our nation is in as the Democrats did--letting them back into office would be almost as big of a mistake as allowing a second term for Obama. If Sarah Palin turns out to be the only "ideologically pure" Conservative out there, then we must get behind her, and do WHATEVER IT TAKES to make sure she wins, even if it is more of an uphill climb to get her there.

Being a "Republican" is no longer good enough for America. An American President must be Conservative above all else...otherwise they are not fit to serve, regardless of if an (R) or a (D) is at the end of their name.